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<div id="ugp6xu7" class="hSearch"> <form target="_blank" action="https://search.eepw.com.cn/search/s" method="post" id="TsearchBox"> <input class="sBox" name="k" id="searchWord" value="MCU" type="text"> <input name="t" value="4" type="hidden"> <input class="topSearchBtn" value="" type="submit"> </form> </div> <div id="qa8azih" class="clear"></div> </div> <link type="text/css" rel="stylesheet" /> <div id="q7xroz7" class="hTopBottom" id="hTopBottom" ></div> <div id="a6fl2fu" class="hAd">  <iframe id='a5e7bdf8' name='a5e7bdf8' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=89&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='1000' height='75'><a target='_blank'><img src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=89&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE&n=a4c46fa4' border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <div id="clhgp8k" class="clear"></div><link rel="stylesheet" tyle="text/css" /> <div class="hoowztc" id="path" style="position:relative;">  <div id="3d76hq4" class="hLogoLocationSearch"> <div id="ju3e26i" class="cT"> <h2>新聞中心</h2> </div> <div id="fbcjqsp" class="hLocation"> <p><a href="http://cafeforensic.com" target="_blank">EEPW首頁</a> > <a href="/info/industry/special/smart">智能計算</a> > <a href="/info/articlelist/special/smart/type/3">業(yè)界動態(tài)</a> > 李開復：這些領(lǐng)域?qū)⒙氏缺蝗斯ぶ悄茴嵏?/p> </div> </div> </div>    <div class="dibpufg" id="container"> <section> <article> <h1>李開復：這些領(lǐng)域?qū)⒙氏缺蝗斯ぶ悄茴嵏?/h1> <div id="9hdqy77" class="authorTimeSource"> <span>作者：</span> <span>時間：2017-04-11</span> <span>來源：騰訊科技</span> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"/> <span style="float:right; width:130px;margin-right:0px; text-align:right;"> <div id="lca7kf5" class="nav0"> <ul> <li><a href="javascript:void(0);"><img src="http://cafeforensic.com/event/action/images/icon_add_4.png" width="20" border="0" align="absmiddle" />加入技術(shù)交流群</a> <ul> <li style="text-align:center;"><img src="http://cafeforensic.com/event/company/images/code_1.jpg" width="130"><br />掃碼加入<br />和技術(shù)大咖面對面交流<br />海量資料庫查詢</li> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> </span> <span style="float:right; width:30px;margin-right:0px; text-align:right;"><a rel="nofollow">收藏</a></span> </div> <div id="734dkw8" class="hAd4_Afinal20a_back">  <iframe id='a890e388' name='a890e388' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=88&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='660' height='60'><a target='_blank'><img src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=88&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE&n=a635e61e' border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <div style="margin-top:28px;"></div> <div id="h8t2y8x" class="content" id="contentDiv" style="position:relative;"> <div id="bhqtdo3" class="ad_300x180_Afinal13_back">  <iframe id='a225770a' name='a225770a' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='300' height='200'><a target='_blank'><img src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE&n=a576c0a2' border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <span id="contentlabels" style="font-size:14px;"><p>　　這就是一個很好的生意。因為你收的利息遠遠超過銀行利息。產(chǎn)品推出來以后，僅僅18個月，每個月就可以放出120萬單，每年貸款額是三四百億級別。利潤是不可想象的，馬上就要上市了。</p>本文引用地址：<a href="http://cafeforensic.com/article/201704/346470.htm">http://cafeforensic.com/article/201704/346470.htm</a><p>　　所以，如果你切到了一個用戶非常大的痛點，那就可以做2C應(yīng)用。但是大部分AI應(yīng)用是2B，而不是2C，畢竟大部分需求并不是小額貸款，而是銀行、保險公司等等。</p><p>　　第二個問題，數(shù)據(jù)怎么辦?</p><p>　　基本上有三種方法，第一個是自己努力累積。剛才講的用錢寶，就是剛開始沒有數(shù)據(jù)，那就只能用規(guī)則來貸款，就會犯錯，壞賬率就多，每次壞賬都要付出血淚的代價，但是每一次賠錢就產(chǎn)生了新的數(shù)據(jù)，當數(shù)據(jù)足夠了就可以用機器學習。用錢寶的數(shù)據(jù)是用血淚自己堆積出來的。</p><p>　　第二個方面是借力別人。比如說給招商銀行服務(wù)，幫他做一個很好的風控引擎，數(shù)據(jù)就是在招商銀行，招商銀行不會把這個數(shù)據(jù)拿出來。做2B的好處是客戶如果有數(shù)據(jù)，你就可以用上，用上了帶不走，但是至少產(chǎn)品可以做出來。</p><p>　　第三種模式是創(chuàng)新工場的模式。創(chuàng)新工場在做一個特別大的計劃，就是收集特別大量的數(shù)據(jù)，開放給創(chuàng)業(yè)公司使用。</p><p>　　騰訊科技：<a class="contentlabel" href="http://cafeforensic.com/news/listbylabel/label/人工智能"><em>人工智能</em></a>對于傳統(tǒng)商業(yè)領(lǐng)域究竟是顛覆還是改良?</p><p>　　李開復：兩個都有。如果你選擇的業(yè)務(wù)暫時不顛覆，那就可以切一下。比如說用錢寶做的小額貸款，銀行并不做，所以不是搶它的生意，反而可以幫銀行掙點小利息錢，所以是雙贏。但是可能下一步就有人要做房貸、車貸、甚至是教育貸款，這時候就要動到誰的奶酪?</p><p>　　另外是大公司，他們什么時候可以覺醒起來?他們手中的數(shù)據(jù)才是寶藏，如果他們的心態(tài)是我的數(shù)據(jù)是寶藏，我要自己做，那么99%的情況是不靠譜的。</p><p>　　最終大部分的傳統(tǒng)公司還是被顛覆，歷史告訴我們就是這樣。因為如果一個傳統(tǒng)公司靠他傳統(tǒng)的模式，已經(jīng)掙很多錢。他要靠新的模式來顛覆舊的模式，顛覆之后可能還沒有以前賺的錢多，而且還有很多舊業(yè)務(wù)的內(nèi)部勢力會阻擋你做新業(yè)務(wù)，所以這個很難推。</p><p>　　我不認為今天的銀行、保險公司、醫(yī)院、教育機構(gòu)會意識到這個問題，少數(shù)會自我改良，但大部分都沒戲。</p><p>　　我覺得有很多領(lǐng)域都可以出現(xiàn)大公司，因為BAT雖然很強大，但是他們也有創(chuàng)新的問題，當已有的業(yè)務(wù)做得特別大了，可能不會做一個顛覆你過去的業(yè)務(wù)。還有是當一個新的業(yè)務(wù)出來，那個業(yè)務(wù)跟你的相關(guān)度并不高，你可能也很難介入。</p><p>　　比如說無人駕駛就有可能出一個新的大公司，雖然百度也在做，但是無人駕駛對百度和Google這樣的公司而言，只是一個錦上添花的事情，不是它們的核心價值。反而是Uber這樣的公司拼命做，活下來可能就是下一個BAT。</p><p>　　關(guān)于<a class="contentlabel" href="http://cafeforensic.com/news/listbylabel/label/人工智能"><em>人工智能</em></a>，我個人認為BAT其實是三大黑洞。雖然三個公司都很牛，但牛人進去就掉進黑洞出不來，數(shù)據(jù)進去掉進黑洞出不來，里面做了什么算法也出不來，所以共享性是不夠的。</p><p>　　歷史上當某些公司共享性不夠的時候，就會有人能夠用公開性的方法來挑戰(zhàn)它。比如微軟，雖然花了很多時間，但是畢竟一個公司的力量是打不過整個行業(yè)的所有人，最終LINUX成為了一個更標準化的技術(shù)，微軟也不得不開始擁抱LINUX。</p><p>　　這就是創(chuàng)新工場現(xiàn)在努力的領(lǐng)域，而且我們不覺得是自己做，因為公開平臺就不是一個公司做了，所以我們會和其他公司一起合作，用公開的方法，讓更多人能夠接觸到AI，讓更多的AI創(chuàng)業(yè)起來。</p><p>　　如何適應(yīng)<a class="contentlabel" href="http://cafeforensic.com/news/listbylabel/label/人工智能"><em>人工智能</em></a>時代</p><p>　　騰訊科技：您預測人工智能在整個社會經(jīng)濟領(lǐng)域的深刻影響會是多久?</p><p>　　李開復：我覺得是一個非?？焖俦l(fā)的過程，但是短期內(nèi)反而不好說。比如說華爾街的交易員已經(jīng)差不多成為恐龍了，這個曾經(jīng)很光鮮的、大家很羨慕的高薪職業(yè)就消失了。未來的保安也會部分的消失，因為攝像頭的監(jiān)控，加上一些機器人巡視，已經(jīng)不需要保安了。司機可能也會消失，還包括一些非常高端的白領(lǐng)，比如說放射科醫(yī)生，他們的看片能力不如機器人。</p><p>　　與其說一個領(lǐng)域，我們不妨宏觀看一看十年以后，當50%的人類工作被取代以后會發(fā)生什么事情?</p><p>　　第一個問題，下崗的人誰來養(yǎng)他們?</p><p>　　這個我倒是不擔心，因為人工智能比他們便宜、有效、精準，會創(chuàng)造巨大的財產(chǎn)，政府只要征稅就可以把這50%的人養(yǎng)起來。</p><p>　　第二個問題，是不是應(yīng)該試著重新教育他們?</p><p>　　先想想最糟糕的情況，如果不訓練這批人，每個月就拿著政府發(fā)的5千塊錢，也不會餓著，日子也可以過。但是就失去了人生的追求，也就是說他們在馬斯洛的層次里面，就不再有自我實現(xiàn)的機會了。</p><p>　　一個很好的方向，其實就是一定要選機器不能做的事情。機器不能做深度思考，機器不能做情感、文藝、娛樂、創(chuàng)造，但這也不是這50%的人很容易被訓練的。機器還不能做人對人的深交，當兩個人在一起產(chǎn)生感情，比如說男女戀人、父母對孩子、職工對服務(wù)對象、好朋友在一起八卦，這些感覺永遠不會被機器所替代。</p><p>　　我們就應(yīng)該讓50%的人去做服務(wù)型工作。比如服務(wù)高端客戶，幫助他們做導游、幫他們做美食。</p><p>　　騰訊科技：對機器和人的關(guān)系怎么看?</p><p>　　李開復：剛才講了這50%的人怎么讓他們重新受教育，因為這些人可能已經(jīng)五六十歲了，有一定的難度。如果談到年輕人的教育，我就充滿了信心。</p><p>　　我們今天的教育還是應(yīng)試教育，讓孩子都做一樣的事情，父母希望他們拿一個金飯碗。其實說得難聽，金飯碗就是重復性的工作，就是被機器取代的工作。</p><p>　　所以我們一定要努力告訴孩子幾件事情：</p><p>　　第一，要做你最愛做的事情。因此你最愛才能做得最好。</p><p>　　第二，要做事情就要做得深，做得很深機器才不能取代。</p><p>　　第三，要做平衡，文化、娛樂、藝術(shù)都要很好，全面發(fā)展。</p><p>　　第四，一定要人機結(jié)合，做的一切東西都不可以是在一個真空里面做，說我要做一個藝術(shù)家，每天關(guān)在里面畫畫。你要想到怎么把新技術(shù)、人工智能用在你的藝術(shù)上。</p><p>　　作為一個年輕人，就要看得很清楚了，所謂的二流人才，這種工作就不再了，而且做任何領(lǐng)域都是一樣的。做記者，如果你寫的是花了三天時間采訪了50個人，寫了非常深度的文章，你是不會被取代的，機器做不了。如果是在網(wǎng)上這邊拿一塊，那邊拿一塊拼湊的文章，馬上就要被取代。</p><p>　　最近我正在寫一本書，就叫《人工智能》，希望能夠用科普的方式讓每個人都了解AI，適應(yīng)AI時代的到來。</p><p>　　談患病前后的心理變化</p><p>　　騰訊科技：您回來工作差不多兩年時間，您覺得經(jīng)歷了重病又回歸，您的心態(tài)，包括社會責任的認知有沒有什么變化?</p><p>　　李開復：變化是很大的。我以前虛榮心很強，還是非常喜歡出名，出了名感覺很爽，做的很多事情都分不清楚是為了社會公益來做的，還是為了自己的名利來做的。</p><p>　　我生病之后去見了青云大師，跟他說我的人生目的就是改變世界，讓世界因我而不同。他直接回答：你這樣做太危險，因為隨著你告訴自己在幫助世界變得更好，其實你是在幫你自己。</p><p>　　這一點想通了之后，我也想到生病后人生可能只有100天，那名還有任何意義嗎?做得再有名，一百年后還會有人記得嗎?記得又怎么樣?</p><p>　　想通了這些之后，我回來大部分時間是很低調(diào)的，和創(chuàng)業(yè)者一起工作。因為我覺得我如果有什么價值，就是能夠幫助他們，看到他們成長，這是讓我最欣慰的事情。所以我回來第一年非常低調(diào)，在看案子、投資、融資。</p><p>　　但是過去的12個月會出來說一些事情，只有單純的目的，就是我看到了人工智能終于要起來了。人工智能起來將帶來太多社會不理解的現(xiàn)象，不理解就可能會帶來一些麻煩甚至是災難，所以我現(xiàn)在又需要多出來講一講，科普一下，讓更多的人知道。</p><p>　　生病讓我真正感覺到最重要的事情不是名、不是成功、不是錢、不是地位、不是事業(yè)，而是周圍的愛。因為我生病的過程中，我的太太、女兒、母親、姐姐、朋友，他們對我的愛，我的朋友飛到臺灣來看我，陪伴我晚上不睡覺，在我病床旁邊，我真的非常感動。</p><p>　　人生最有價值的事情真的是愛，而不是名利。當一個人面臨人生要結(jié)束的時候，他絕對不會后悔自己能不能更有名一些，更有錢一些，一定是后悔沒有足夠體會到別人對我的愛，怎么沒有花更多時間跟我愛的人在一起。</p><p>　　我現(xiàn)在每個月抽出十天，跑回臺灣，陪我年紀很大的媽媽和家人。</p><p>　　騰訊科技：之前在生病的過程中可能有很多人生哲學層面的思考，現(xiàn)在做人工智能又是科技方面的思考，這些有什么共通之處?</p><p>　　李開復：大部分的科學家看到的都是未來的理智、邏輯，世界是純物理的世界。但是我會更多的想象。我們在世界上本來就不是來做無聊的、重復性的事情，這一次人工智能就是來點醒我們，說人類就不要再做這些無聊的事情了，我相信生命不只是物理層面的存在，只是過去我們忙著賺錢沒有看到。</p><p>　　我覺得人工智能其實變相的帶來一種機會，機器把無聊的追求、重復性的工作取代了，時間肯定變得更多了，這個時間一定是部分要轉(zhuǎn)化為上進、努力，讓自己能夠有深度。但是大部分的應(yīng)該讓自己了解一下愛是什么，最愛你的人是誰，你是不是把多余的時間能夠分配，花在他們身上讓自己得到一個活得有真正意義的感覺。</p><p>　　一兩千年前古人寫的詩、文章，是多么有文才，多么有想法!現(xiàn)在整天談商業(yè)模式、掙錢、變現(xiàn)。我們這個時間肯定是花太多了，一定要拿一些時間出來，想想人類為什么存在，我們怎么樣讓世界更有愛，我們要有自信，一定有一些特質(zhì)，也許叫做靈性，也許是靈魂，這是機器所沒有的。</p><p>　　我們對人之間的愛是機器沒有的，我們要提升出來，這些是我生了病之后看到人工智能，過去不會有的體會。</p></span> 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