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class="hLocation"> <p><a href="http://cafeforensic.com" target="_blank">EEPW首頁</a> > <a target="_blank">博客</a> > 半導(dǎo)體板塊年末釋放復(fù)蘇信號，明年或?qū)⒆叱鱿滦型ǖ?/p> </div> </div> </div>  </header>   <div class="0ieoo4m" id="container"> <section> <article> <h1>半導(dǎo)體板塊年末釋放復(fù)蘇信號，明年或?qū)⒆叱鱿滦型ǖ?/h1> <div id="i6euai2" class="authorTimeSource"> <span>發(fā)布人：<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" style="color:#ACACAC">芯股嬸</a></span> <span>時間：2023-12-29</span> <span>來源：工程師</span> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"/> <span style="float:right; width:130px;margin-right:0px; text-align:right;"> <div id="ck8ocwg" class="nav0"> <ul> <li><a href="javascript:void(0);"><img src="http://cafeforensic.com/event/action/images/icon_add_4.png" width="20" border="0" align="absmiddle" />加入技術(shù)交流群</a> <ul> <li style="text-align:center;"><img src="http://cafeforensic.com/event/company/images/code_1.jpg" width="130"><br />掃碼加入<br />和技術(shù)大咖面對面交流<br />海量資料庫查詢</li> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> </span> <span style="float:right; display:block; width:70px; text-align:center; font-size:12px; line-height:18px; height:20px; background:#fdfdfd; border:#e89015 solid 1px; border-radius:3px; color:#333;margin-right: 0px;"><a target="_blank">發(fā)布文章</a></span> </div> <div id="4cimcsc" class="hAd4_Afinal20a_back">  <iframe id='a890e388' name='a890e388' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=88&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='660' height='60'><a target='_blank'><img src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=88&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE&n=a635e61e' border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <div style="margin-top:28px;"></div> <div id="c8mmkgy" class="content" id="contentDiv" style="position:relative;"> <div id="ukokak8" class="ad_300x180_Afinal13_back">  <iframe id='a225770a' name='a225770a' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='300' height='200'><a target='_blank'><img src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE&n=a576c0a2' border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <span id="contentlabels" style="font-size:14px;"><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">2023年對于<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">半導(dǎo)體</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"></span>行業(yè)而言，是一個充滿了失望與希望并存的一年。A股半導(dǎo)體板塊全年震蕩，跑輸全球主要半導(dǎo)體指數(shù)。</p><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　然而，年末半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)卻釋放出了復(fù)蘇的信號。<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">消費電子</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"></span>領(lǐng)域的需求開始回升，新興技術(shù)領(lǐng)域也展現(xiàn)出了蓬勃的生機。</p><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　目前，不少機構(gòu)發(fā)布了2024年半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)投資展望，明年****如何、關(guān)注哪些投資方向？本文一起來看機構(gòu)分析。</p><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700;">本文將從三個方面，前瞻半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)2024年的投資機會：</span></p><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700;">1）回顧2023：失望與希望并存</span></p><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700;">2）展望2024年：或?qū)⒆叱鱿滦型ǖ?，有望邁入新一輪的成長周期</span></p><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700;">3）布局建議：關(guān)注四大主線</span></p><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700;">回顧2023：失望與希望并存</span></p><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　2023年對于半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)而言，是震蕩的一年，也是失望與希望并存的一年。</p><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　2023年以來，宏觀經(jīng)濟趨緩、地緣政治博弈持續(xù)、產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈割裂嚴(yán)重等問題在延續(xù)，<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700;">半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)處于下行通道。相對應(yīng)的，A股半導(dǎo)體市場呈現(xiàn)震蕩****</span>。</p><img src="https://np-newspic.dfcfw.com/download/D25036310280812868562_w923h695.jpg" /><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">圖源：南財研選</p><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700;">1. 申萬半導(dǎo)體指數(shù)（801081.SI）跑輸全球主要半導(dǎo)體指數(shù)</span></p><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　以申萬半導(dǎo)體指數(shù)（801081.SI）為例，受AI領(lǐng)域發(fā)展及消費電子領(lǐng)域復(fù)蘇預(yù)期變動影響，2023年申萬半導(dǎo)體指數(shù)呈現(xiàn)震蕩****。雖跑贏<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">滬深300</span>指數(shù)，但跑輸全球主要半導(dǎo)體指數(shù)。</p><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　Wind數(shù)據(jù)顯示，<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700;">截至目前（1月3日-12月27日），申萬半導(dǎo)體指數(shù)下跌8.34%，跑贏滬深300指數(shù)近5個百分點，但同期美國費城半導(dǎo)體指數(shù)大幅上漲66.45%，中國臺灣半導(dǎo)體指數(shù)上漲38.46%</span>。</p><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　機構(gòu)對于半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)當(dāng)前處于底部位置給出了類似看法。<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700;">東海<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">證券</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"></span>表示</span>，A股半導(dǎo)體在2023年處于<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700;">周期與周期的底部</span>。<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700;">國開證券認為</span>，半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)當(dāng)前整體仍處于<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700;">景氣筑底階段</span>。</p><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700;">2. 年末半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)釋放復(fù)蘇信號</span></p><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　前三季度，消費電子領(lǐng)域需求端持續(xù)低迷，2023年全球半導(dǎo)體市場規(guī)模出現(xiàn)下滑。WSTS預(yù)計，2023年全球半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)市場規(guī)模為5201.3億美元，同比下滑約9.4%。此外，供給端調(diào)整過程較為慘烈，全年減產(chǎn)、降價、虧損乃至破產(chǎn)的新聞不絕于耳。</p><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700;">在經(jīng)歷了全年漫長又痛苦的調(diào)整后，年末半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)也是釋放出復(fù)蘇信號</span>。</p><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700;">消費電子領(lǐng)域</span>，2023年第四季度智能手機及PC銷量都呈現(xiàn)出了上行趨勢。</p><ul style="list-style-type: none;" class=" list-paddingleft-2"><li><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px;">　　Counterpoint Research發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2023年10月全球智能手機的銷量結(jié)束了連續(xù)27個月的同比下降，實現(xiàn)正增長，10月銷量同比增長5%。</p></li><li><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px;">　　Techinsighs預(yù)計2023年第四季度全球PC銷量與去年同期相比將增長7%。</p></li></ul><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700;">新興技術(shù)領(lǐng)域</span>也表現(xiàn)出了蓬勃生機。</p><ul style="list-style-type: none;" class=" list-paddingleft-2"><li><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px;">　　2023年<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">人工智能</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"></span>領(lǐng)域覆蓋多領(lǐng)域需求的大模型產(chǎn)品層出不窮，<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">賽迪顧問</span>統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至2023年7月，全球共有268個人工智能大模型發(fā)布，國內(nèi)企業(yè)發(fā)布的人工智能大模型有130個。</p></li><li><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px;">　　AI大模型的構(gòu)建與訓(xùn)練演進都對算力資源提出了更高的要求，AI服務(wù)器市場需求逆勢上行，</p></li><li><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px;">　　全球<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">新能源</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"></span>車銷量持續(xù)保持上行，帶動分立器件產(chǎn)品的市場規(guī)模保持增長。</p></li></ul><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700;">平安證券表示</span>，半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)最為倚重的消費電子領(lǐng)域，AIGC有望開始走向邊緣終端，AI手機、AIPC有望將消費者關(guān)注點拉回，加上行業(yè)本來的換機周期已到，銷售均會向好；算力端得益于智能算力建設(shè)的大幅增長，AI服務(wù)器將延續(xù)高速增長。此外，汽車智能化、電動化等趨勢仍將延續(xù)，將為行業(yè)增長提供穩(wěn)定支撐。</p><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　展望2024年：或?qū)⒆叱鱿滦型ǖ溃型~入新一輪的成長周期</p><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700;">湘財證券認為</span>，2024年半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)將迎來充滿活力的一年，<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700;">人工智能領(lǐng)域的發(fā)展及人工智能終端應(yīng)用的落地、半導(dǎo)體下游需求復(fù)蘇</span>帶來的機會都值得關(guān)注。</p><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　作為半導(dǎo)體市場的催化劑之一，目前，人工智能通用大模型正在從底層模型構(gòu)建優(yōu)化走向應(yīng)用落地，國內(nèi)已有多地印發(fā)文件，推進大模型創(chuàng)新應(yīng)用落地。</p><img src="https://np-newspic.dfcfw.com/download/D25596707777955888953_w1004h828.jpg" width="554" /><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">圖源：湘財證券</p><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　此外，經(jīng)過長達一年多的半導(dǎo)體供給端調(diào)整，半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)的庫存已基本回歸至正常水位；需求端的復(fù)蘇進程成為影響半導(dǎo)體板塊表現(xiàn)的核心因素。各大市場咨詢機構(gòu)對于2024年半導(dǎo)體下游需求的穩(wěn)中有增持有樂觀態(tài)度。</p><ul style="list-style-type: none;" class=" list-paddingleft-2"><li><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px;">　　Counterpoint預(yù)計隨著庫存調(diào)整接近尾聲，2024年智能手機出貨量將同比增長3%，呈現(xiàn)相對健康的態(tài)勢；復(fù)蘇預(yù)計將主要集中在新興市場。</p></li><li><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px;">　　Canalys預(yù)計2024年全球個人電腦（PC）出貨量有望同比增長8%至2.67億臺。</p></li><li><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px;">　　Trendforce估算，2023年AI服務(wù)器（包含搭載GPU、FPGA、ASIC等）出貨量逾120萬臺，年增將達37.7%，占整體服務(wù)器出貨量達9%，2024年將再成長逾38%，AI服務(wù)器占比將逾12%。</p></li><li><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px;">　　IEA等機構(gòu)預(yù)計2023年全球新能源車銷量為1400萬輛，年同比增長37%；2024年全球新能源車銷量為1750萬輛，年同比增長25%。</p></li></ul><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700;">平安證券指出</span>，此輪下行周期行至2023年底，行業(yè)底部已經(jīng)確認，消費電子復(fù)蘇、智能算力建設(shè)投入加大，工業(yè)、汽車等賽道有望帶來新的增長點，行業(yè)將進入實質(zhì)性復(fù)蘇。<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700;">行業(yè)有望逐步擺脫負增長，或?qū)⑦M入新一輪上升周期</span>。</p><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　從WSTS、Techinsights、FutureHorizons等機構(gòu)預(yù)測來看，主要機構(gòu)對今年的半導(dǎo)體市場規(guī)模增速，預(yù)計下降10%左右；<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700;">2024年，增速預(yù)計在9%以上，市場規(guī)模有望創(chuàng)出歷史新高</span>。</p><img src="https://np-newspic.dfcfw.com/download/D25572492486417622239_w1578h543.jpg" width="554" /><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">圖源：平安證券</p><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　布局建議：關(guān)注四大主線</p><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700;">湘財證券指出</span>，AI大模型的持續(xù)優(yōu)化及多樣化AI應(yīng)用終端的入市商用將會持續(xù)提升全球算力需求，<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700;">推動新一輪AI基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)的開啟，將帶動高性能以太網(wǎng)交換機、路由器、先進存儲產(chǎn)品、GPU等多種半導(dǎo)體硬件的市場需求</span>。</p><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700;">傳統(tǒng)消費電子領(lǐng)域復(fù)蘇在望</span>，半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)庫存去化已有顯著成效，需求端消費電子、工業(yè)領(lǐng)域的回暖跡象漸顯。晶圓代工行業(yè)的競爭加劇，2024年上半年價格預(yù)計持續(xù)下調(diào)，利好上游IC設(shè)計企業(yè)。<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700;">建議持續(xù)關(guān)注半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)</span>。</p><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　具體來看，<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700;">東海證券認為</span>，四大主線值得關(guān)注：</p><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700;">主線一：創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動—MR科技創(chuàng)新、AI終端賦能</span></p><ul style="list-style-type: none;" class=" list-paddingleft-2"><li><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px;">　　AI大模型引入后實現(xiàn)云端AI的巨大進步，不斷迭代的效果高速增長；</p></li><li><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px;">　　AI由云端到消費端的產(chǎn)品陸續(xù)推出，AIPC與AI手機在云端接入大模型，端側(cè)實現(xiàn)部分本地AI運算，驅(qū)動算力芯片等組件增長；</p></li><li><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px;">　　<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">蘋果</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"></span>引領(lǐng)MR硬件升級，有望帶來新科技體驗，消費者預(yù)期將進入新的一輪科技新產(chǎn)品的消費周期；</p></li><li><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px;">　　AI與MR在2024年有望驅(qū)動終端消費復(fù)蘇，上游零組件或?qū)⑹芤妗?/p></li></ul><br /><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700;">主線二：周期復(fù)蘇—晶圓代工、封測、消費電子芯片</span></p><ul style="list-style-type: none;" class=" list-paddingleft-2"><li><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px;">　　通用型芯片、代工、封測的價格均對行業(yè)景氣度較為敏感，景氣度回暖對應(yīng)企業(yè)的價格、毛<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">利率</span>、收入彈性更大；</p></li><li><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px;">　　半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)周期一般在3-6年，本輪周期底部從2019年開始，2023年供給逐步出清、需求逐步恢復(fù)，2024年消費電子有望實現(xiàn)景氣度大幅回暖；</p></li><li><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px;">　　我國晶圓代工、封測、部分半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)品市場已經(jīng)積累一定產(chǎn)業(yè)資源，但與全球龍頭對比還有較大國產(chǎn)化空間。</p></li></ul><br /><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700;">主線三：國產(chǎn)供應(yīng)鏈—設(shè)備、材料、零組件</span></p><ul style="list-style-type: none;" class=" list-paddingleft-2"><li><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px;">　　全球2023、2024年全面管制中國先進邏輯與存儲產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展，上游供應(yīng)鏈國產(chǎn)化緊迫性急劇上升；</p></li><li><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px;">　　我國自主可控企業(yè)在設(shè)備、材料、EDA多個領(lǐng)域全球供給占比不足10%，國產(chǎn)空間巨大；</p></li><li><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px;">　　國內(nèi)部分企業(yè)在一些細分市場完成0-1突破，多數(shù)細分市場已經(jīng)量產(chǎn)到部分28nm產(chǎn)品；</p></li><li><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px;">　　國內(nèi)大型存儲與設(shè)備代工廠新建晶圓廠對國產(chǎn)供應(yīng)鏈的比例或有較大幅度提升。</p></li></ul><br /><p style="margin-top: 22px; margin-bottom: 22px; padding: 0px; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 31px; word-break: break-word; text-wrap: wrap; background-color: 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href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/開關(guān)電源" title="開關(guān)電源" target="_blank">開關(guān)電源</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/單片機" title="單片機" target="_blank">單片機</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/PCB" title="PCB" target="_blank">PCB</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/USB" title="USB" target="_blank">USB</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/ARM" title="ARM" target="_blank">ARM</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/CPLD" title="CPLD" target="_blank">CPLD</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/連接器" title="連接器" target="_blank">連接器</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/MEMS" title="MEMS" target="_blank">MEMS</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/CMOS" title="CMOS" target="_blank">CMOS</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/MIPS" title="MIPS" target="_blank">MIPS</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/EMC" title="EMC" target="_blank">EMC</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/EDA" title="EDA" target="_blank">EDA</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/ROM" title="ROM" target="_blank">ROM</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/陀螺儀" title="陀螺儀" target="_blank">陀螺儀</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/VHDL" title="VHDL" target="_blank">VHDL</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/比較器" title="比較器" target="_blank">比較器</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/Verilog" title="Verilog" target="_blank">Verilog</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/穩(wěn)壓電源" title="穩(wěn)壓電源" target="_blank">穩(wěn)壓電源</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/RAM" title="RAM" target="_blank">RAM</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/AVR" title="AVR" target="_blank">AVR</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/傳感器" title="傳感器" target="_blank">傳感器</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/可控硅" title="可控硅" target="_blank">可控硅</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/IGBT" title="IGBT" target="_blank">IGBT</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/嵌入式開發(fā)" title="嵌入式開發(fā)" target="_blank">嵌入式開發(fā)</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/逆變器" title="逆變器" target="_blank">逆變器</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/Quartus" title="Quartus" target="_blank">Quartus</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/RS-232" title="RS-232" target="_blank">RS-232</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/Cyclone" title="Cyclone" target="_blank">Cyclone</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/電位器" title="電位器" target="_blank">電位器</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/電機控制" title="電機控制" target="_blank">電機控制</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/藍牙" title="藍牙" target="_blank">藍牙</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/PLC" title="PLC" target="_blank">PLC</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/PWM" title="PWM" target="_blank">PWM</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/汽車電子" title="汽車電子" target="_blank">汽車電子</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/轉(zhuǎn)換器" title="轉(zhuǎn)換器" target="_blank">轉(zhuǎn)換器</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/電源管理" title="電源管理" target="_blank">電源管理</a></li> <li><a href="http://cafeforensic.com/tech/s/k/信號放大器" title="信號放大器" target="_blank">信號放大器</a></li> </ul> </div>  </div>   <div class="q86qku6" id="imgdiv" style="display:none;position:absolute;border:#ccc 1px solid;width:150px;height:80px;line-height:140%;text-align:left;padding-left:5px;background:#fff;overflow:hidden;"></div>  <div class="2u8uoks" id="ad20161025"> <div style="text-align:right; font:12px/18px Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif, '宋體'; width:50px; background:#000; text-align:center; float:right;"> <a 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