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text-align:right;"> <div id="c4gyum6" class="nav0"> <ul> <li><a href="javascript:void(0);"><img src="http://cafeforensic.com/event/action/images/icon_add_4.png" width="20" border="0" align="absmiddle" />加入技術(shù)交流群</a> <ul> <li style="text-align:center;"><img src="http://cafeforensic.com/event/company/images/code_1.jpg" width="130"><br />掃碼加入<br />和技術(shù)大咖面對(duì)面交流<br />海量資料庫(kù)查詢</li> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> </span> <span style="float:right; width:30px;margin-right:0px; text-align:right;"><a rel="nofollow">收藏</a></span> </div> <div id="4yeaigs" class="hAd4_Afinal20a_back">  <iframe id='a890e388' name='a890e388' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=88&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='660' height='60'><a target='_blank'><img src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=88&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE&n=a635e61e' border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <div style="margin-top:28px;"></div> <div id="s4egg4o" class="content" id="contentDiv" style="position:relative;"> <div id="4gs4sw0" class="ad_300x180_Afinal13_back">  <iframe id='a225770a' name='a225770a' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='300' height='200'><a target='_blank'><img src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE&n=a576c0a2' border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <span id="contentlabels" style="font-size:14px;"><p>　　每隔一陣子，我們就會(huì)看到討論有關(guān)技術(shù)取代人力的文章。這些文章通常都是一些描述我們將因?yàn)?a class="contentlabel" href="http://cafeforensic.com/news/listbylabel/label/機(jī)器人"><em>機(jī)器人</em></a>與應(yīng)用程序(App)而失業(yè)的“末日預(yù)言”。當(dāng)然也有相反的論述指稱自動(dòng)化可以提高公司的利潤(rùn)，使公司轉(zhuǎn)而投資于創(chuàng)造出新的工作。</p>本文引用地址：<a href="http://cafeforensic.com/article/201701/342342.htm">http://cafeforensic.com/article/201701/342342.htm</a> <p>　　然而，有鑒于當(dāng)前的政治情勢(shì)，我一直在思考那些許下讓工作回流的承諾，但我不確定這是否可能會(huì)發(fā)生?或者，自動(dòng)化、自動(dòng)駕駛車(chē)以及其他技術(shù)是否只會(huì)加速某些工作的消逝?更嚴(yán)重的是，<a class="contentlabel" href="http://cafeforensic.com/news/listbylabel/label/工程師"><em>工程師</em></a>將會(huì)因?yàn)殚_(kāi)發(fā)出這些技術(shù)而被指責(zé)“扼殺”更多制造業(yè)的工作嗎?</p> <p>　　我在幾年前拜讀了David Rotman在《技術(shù)評(píng)論》(Technology Review)發(fā)表的一篇文章后，就開(kāi)始思考這個(gè)問(wèn)題。“技術(shù)如何摧毀工作”(How Technology Is Destroying Jobs)——這篇文章一開(kāi)始就引用了兩位麻省理工學(xué)院(MIT)教授的話，他們指責(zé)自動(dòng)化以<a class="contentlabel" href="http://cafeforensic.com/news/listbylabel/label/機(jī)器人"><em>機(jī)器人</em></a>的形式，犧牲了工業(yè)化國(guó)家的制造業(yè)工作機(jī)會(huì)，特別是汽車(chē)產(chǎn)業(yè)。作者并在文中指出，“MIT教授Erik Brynjolfsson與Andrew McAfee認(rèn)為，快速的技術(shù)變革，使其摧毀工作的速度比創(chuàng)造工作機(jī)會(huì)更快，造成美國(guó)的收入中位數(shù)(median income)停滯以及加深成長(zhǎng)不平等。”</p> <center><img alt="“末日預(yù)言”成真工程師是罪魁禍?zhǔn)祝? width="500" height="375" src="http://editerupload.eepw.com.cn/201701/0e4c0a074d097c02519c10c402a163eb.jpg" /></center> <p> </p> <p>　　<a class="contentlabel" href="http://cafeforensic.com/news/listbylabel/label/機(jī)器人"><em>機(jī)器人</em></a>將持續(xù)取代制造業(yè)的人力，最終，人工智能也可能帶走許多高度技能的工作。</p> <p>　　Brynjolfsson和McAfee并以圖形表示，大約從2000年開(kāi)始出現(xiàn)生產(chǎn)力與工作成長(zhǎng)的差異。2000年，正是網(wǎng)絡(luò)開(kāi)始起飛的年代。兩位MIT教授以圖表呈現(xiàn)生產(chǎn)力持續(xù)增加，而工作機(jī)會(huì)的成長(zhǎng)趨緩。</p> <center><img alt="“末日預(yù)言”成真工程師是罪魁禍?zhǔn)祝? width="350" height="450" src="http://editerupload.eepw.com.cn/201701/f710e141e0b64f31862e746263aef1e4.jpg" /></center> <p>　　然而，Rotman強(qiáng)調(diào)，技術(shù)突破可能在某些領(lǐng)域?qū)е率I(yè)，但卻在其他領(lǐng)域創(chuàng)造更多工作機(jī)會(huì)。因此，這其實(shí)是工作人員必須提升自身技能的問(wèn)題。當(dāng)然，就像任何領(lǐng)域的變革一樣，總會(huì)有一些輸家。死守著一些落伍、過(guò)時(shí)技術(shù)的人可能永遠(yuǎn)無(wú)法再找到類(lèi)似的工作。據(jù)說(shuō)，正是這樣的一群人促成了今年美國(guó)大選的結(jié)果。</p> <p>　　Rotman以亞馬遜(Amazon)利用機(jī)器人取代人力為例表示，當(dāng)你在Amazon.com訂貨后，很可能會(huì)從Kiva Systems (如今是Amazon Robotics)制造的機(jī)器人取得貨品，因?yàn)楝F(xiàn)在都已經(jīng)由機(jī)器人將商品交給人員進(jìn)行包裝了。或許，現(xiàn)在還是由人親手將商品交給你吧!</p> <p>　　Rotman還談到自動(dòng)化如何在許多領(lǐng)域造成差距。例如讓你自己報(bào)稅的試算軟件，取代了許多會(huì)計(jì)師，使得軟件開(kāi)發(fā)人員“一夜致富”，同時(shí)也讓會(huì)計(jì)師失業(yè)了。網(wǎng)絡(luò)App與智能手機(jī)App也是一樣的，這些App取代了旅行社與售票員。從Rotman發(fā)表這篇文章后，我還在幾條主要的高速公路與橋梁上看到自動(dòng)化系統(tǒng)取代了收費(fèi)站，連最后幾個(gè)收費(fèi)站的人員也被迫失業(yè)了。同樣地，我認(rèn)為物聯(lián)網(wǎng)(IoT)與工業(yè)物聯(lián)網(wǎng)(IIoT)的出現(xiàn)將會(huì)消滅掉一些工作，但也會(huì)創(chuàng)造出一些高技能水平的工作。Rotman強(qiáng)調(diào)，就像Amazon Robotics等公司正在招聘<a class="contentlabel" href="http://cafeforensic.com/news/listbylabel/label/工程師"><em>工程師</em></a>一樣，這種工作機(jī)會(huì)不平等的情況正持續(xù)成長(zhǎng)。</p> <p>　　機(jī)器人可以做一些很困難、危險(xiǎn)或人們根本不可能去做的事情。例如，防水機(jī)器人能在危險(xiǎn)的水下成為我們的眼睛。當(dāng)然，這一類(lèi)的例子不勝枚舉。</p> <p>　　最近在《華盛頓郵報(bào)》(The Washington Post)的一篇文章更進(jìn)一步延伸了Rotman的看法：藉由在產(chǎn)品組合中增加人工智能，能讓一些超出人力所及的工作以機(jī)器取代。對(duì)于創(chuàng)造技術(shù)的<a class="contentlabel" href="http://cafeforensic.com/news/listbylabel/label/工程師"><em>工程師</em></a>來(lái)說(shuō)，自動(dòng)化似乎是好處多多，只要我們不知道如何設(shè)計(jì)系統(tǒng)來(lái)取代我們。</p> <p>　　即使美國(guó)看好制造業(yè)的成長(zhǎng)，根據(jù)我的觀察，這也必須透過(guò)自動(dòng)化來(lái)完成。當(dāng)前與未來(lái)所需的工作，需要的是有經(jīng)驗(yàn)的工程師與技術(shù)人員，以進(jìn)行開(kāi)發(fā)、安裝與維護(hù)這些自動(dòng)系統(tǒng)，但僅止于此。我完全相信，那些認(rèn)為下一屆美國(guó)政府將為其帶來(lái)原有工作機(jī)會(huì)的人，只能等待奇跡了。那些工作已經(jīng)消失了。新的工作機(jī)會(huì)正持續(xù)不斷地被創(chuàng)造出來(lái)，但需要的是一個(gè)完全不同的技能層次。</p> <p>　　然而，曾經(jīng)因?yàn)樽詣?dòng)化而失業(yè)的人們，會(huì)將注意力與抱怨轉(zhuǎn)嫁給工程師嗎?他們會(huì)控訴工程師是導(dǎo)致制造業(yè)與其他勞力工作流失的另一個(gè)罪魁禍?zhǔn)讍?而我們可能會(huì)是下一個(gè)?</p></span>  <div class="qseco4y" id="coverDiv" class="article_reg" style="width:100%;overflow:hidden;display:none;z-index:10;position:absolute;left:0;background:#fff;"> <center> <img src="https://webstorage.eepw.com.cn/images/display/reg.jpg" border="0" usemap="#Map" /> <map name="Map" id="Map"> <area shape="rect" coords="133,235,319,253" target="_blank" /> <area 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