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<span>作者：</span> <span>時間：2018-07-26</span> <span>來源：網(wǎng)絡</span> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"/> <span style="float:right; width:130px;margin-right:0px; text-align:right;"> <div id="xobbsbf" class="nav0"> <ul> <li><a href="javascript:void(0);"><img src="http://cafeforensic.com/event/action/images/icon_add_4.png" width="20" border="0" align="absmiddle" />加入技術(shù)交流群</a> <ul> <li style="text-align:center;"><img src="http://cafeforensic.com/event/company/images/code_1.jpg" width="130"><br />掃碼加入<br />和技術(shù)大咖面對面交流<br />海量資料庫查詢</li> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> </span> <span style="float:right; width:30px;margin-right:0px; text-align:right;"><a rel="nofollow">收藏</a></span> </div> <div id="unlhsb2" class="hAd4_Afinal20a_back">  <iframe id='a890e388' name='a890e388' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=88&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='660' height='60'><a target='_blank'><img 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style="font-size:14px;"><p>　　如果要問當今世界銀行最大的危險是什么?很多人可能會說黑天鵝事件?次貸危機?或者匯率暴跌?乃至于房地產(chǎn)崩盤?然而實際情況可能都不是，我們?nèi)缃褡詈ε碌臇|西可能是人工智能。最近，人工智能又干了很多的事情，引發(fā)了一場對于金融業(yè)的全面大恐慌，今天我們就來討論一下，<a class="contentlabel" href="http://cafeforensic.com/news/listbylabel/label/機器人"><em>機器人</em></a>搶銀行飯碗時代已來，全面失業(yè)潮我們該怎么辦?</p>本文引用地址：<a href="http://cafeforensic.com/article/201807/389514.htm">http://cafeforensic.com/article/201807/389514.htm</a><p><br /></p><center><img alt="機器人搶銀行飯碗時代已來，全面失業(yè)潮來臨我們能做什么？" src="http://editerupload.eepw.com.cn/201807/4952643f162fb9bacdd019b4f1ba0b48.jpg" width="547" height="307" /></center><p><br /></p><p><strong>　　一、金融業(yè)將被人工智能大面積攻陷</strong></p><p>　　最近，一張來自日本的動圖引發(fā)了很多人的關(guān)心，在日本的一次葬禮現(xiàn)場，一個身著袈裟的僧侶正在“咚咚咚”地敲著木魚，然而這個僧侶不是面容和藹的高僧大德，卻是一個身著袈裟的“<a class="contentlabel" href="http://cafeforensic.com/news/listbylabel/label/機器人"><em>機器人</em></a>”法師，這個<a class="contentlabel" href="http://cafeforensic.com/news/listbylabel/label/機器人"><em>機器人</em></a>名叫Pepper，穿上一身袈裟，裝扮成僧人的模樣出席葬禮，一次三千。相比一個真僧人一萬多塊錢的出場費，的確可以給好多家庭減少經(jīng)濟負擔了!</p><p>　　根據(jù)日本媒體的報道，相比于機器人僧侶這樣需要人類心靈接受的工作來說，人工智能高速替代的領(lǐng)域會更多，比如說金融這種有客觀標準的領(lǐng)域，人類不僅會被取代，還可能會和機器人差好幾個段位。再比如銀行放貸，大量個人數(shù)據(jù)可以告訴你這個人是不是都按時還款，有沒有曾經(jīng)涉嫌欺詐，甚至他的購買紀錄、家人的出入境情況也可以作為參考標準，這樣一個機器人遠比一個信貸員的分析能力強得多。</p><p>　　然而，縱觀世界銀行業(yè)的確已經(jīng)成為了最危險的行當，2017 年 3 月，埃森哲在一個名為“2017 年技術(shù)愿景”的報告中表示，技術(shù)會改變銀行業(yè)，世界上有 4/5 的銀行家認為，AI 將會影響銀行與客戶互動的方式，例如之前需要在柜臺辦理開戶、理財或轉(zhuǎn)賬業(yè)務，現(xiàn)在機器或手機應用就可以提供更好的服務。</p><p>　　德意志銀行前 CEO John Cryan 曾表示，AI 算法可以取代德國銀行一半的勞動力。在他任期的兩年半時間里，他裁掉了 4000 名員工，大部分員工的工作都被 AI 算法代替了，而新招聘的員工則多是銷售或研究員。</p><p>　　金融時報做過一份調(diào)研，2007 年至 2017 年間，世界十大投資銀行(除了花旗和美國銀行)共裁去了 6 萬名員工。如果用 AI 代替人工的銀行越來越多，意味著接下來裁員數(shù)量還會直線上升。于是2018年7月3日，花旗銀行宣布計劃在 5 年內(nèi)把投資銀行部門的科技和業(yè)務人員裁去 50% ，準備用人工智能算法代替他們的工作。</p><p>　　幾乎在同一天的中國2018年7月2日，中國銀行業(yè)協(xié)會發(fā)布《中國銀行業(yè)客服中心發(fā)展報告(2017)》，這是中國銀行業(yè)協(xié)會連續(xù)第五年發(fā)布銀行業(yè)客服中心發(fā)展報告。截至2017年末，銀行業(yè)客服中心從業(yè)人員為5.12萬人，較2016年降低4%，這4%的員工幾乎都已經(jīng)被人工智能所取代了。</p><p>　　無論你承認還是不承認，作為人類最為頂尖的高知識產(chǎn)業(yè)金融業(yè)已經(jīng)被人工智能無情的淹沒了，無論是全中國第一家無人銀行，還是五大行裁員數(shù)萬人，一場人工智能的失業(yè)潮已經(jīng)在所難免，那么全面金融失業(yè)潮來臨我們能做什么?</p><p><br /></p><center><img alt="機器人搶銀行飯碗時代已來，全面失業(yè)潮來臨我們能做什么？" src="http://editerupload.eepw.com.cn/201807/6d3f410e9fcc362d2fd97ac8830ee238.jpg" width="547" height="288" /></center><p><br /></p><p><strong>　　二、全面失業(yè)潮來臨我們能做什么?</strong></p><p><span id="_baidu_bookmark_start_3" style="display:none;line-height:0px;">?</span></p><p>　　最近，著名的《人類簡史》《未來簡史》的作者，尤瓦爾·赫拉利的簡史第三部曲《今日簡史》出版，在書的第二章，赫拉利用《就業(yè)：等你長大，可能沒有工作》作為標題，說了一個巨大的危險：只要10-20年，就會有幾十億人成為經(jīng)濟上多余的存在。我們真的無從避免失業(yè)潮嗎?</p><p>　　也許事情并沒有那么簡單，赫拉利認為人類有兩種能力：身體能力和認知能力。過去，機器人主要是在原始的身體能力方面得以與人類競爭，而人類則是在認知能力方面享有巨大的優(yōu)勢。所以即使我們早在一百多年前就已經(jīng)面對了自動化的問題，但自動化繁榮的同時，我們創(chuàng)造了很多全新的服務業(yè)工作，這些新工作需要人類擁有的獨特的認知技能，包括學習、分析、溝通，特別是必須要理解人類的種種情緒，這讓我們并沒有出現(xiàn)大規(guī)模的失業(yè)潮。</p><p>　　然而，隨著人工智能的發(fā)展，機器人不僅在技能上超越了人類，在理解人類的情緒方面也正在甩掉人類，并且我們除了身體能力和認知能力之外，并不知道還有什么能力能讓人類永遠勝過機器人。我們的科技越是了解哪些生化機制支撐了人類的情感、欲望和選擇，那么人工智能就會越容易分析人類的行為、預測人類的決策，過去我們所一直稱贊的人類的直覺，其實在行為學領(lǐng)域分析之后不過只是辨識能力而已，所謂優(yōu)秀的司機、銀行經(jīng)理和律師，對路況、投資分析和談判交涉其實并沒有神奇的直覺，不過是通過經(jīng)驗識別出了一些一再出現(xiàn)的模式。這也就意味著，就算是那些原本認為依靠直覺的工作，人工智能也能表現(xiàn)的比人類更好。</p><p>　　失業(yè)的威脅不僅僅是因為信息科技和人工智能的興起，而是因為信息技術(shù)與生物技術(shù)的融合，人工智能不僅能夠侵入人類，在以往認為專屬于人類的技能上打敗人類，更擁有獨特的非人類能力，是的人工智能和人類之間的差距不是程度高低的問題，而是完完全全的兩回事。這就是“連接性”和“可更新性”。</p><p>　　所謂連接性，人類都是個體，很難將所有人彼此鏈接，從而確保他們都得到最新的信息。相反，機器人并不是彼此獨立的個體，因此很容易把他們的計算機集成為一個單一、靈活的網(wǎng)絡，所以我們面對的不是幾百萬臺機器人取代幾百萬工人，而是所有作為個體的工人都會被一套集成的網(wǎng)絡所取代，這就是連接性的巨大魅力。</p><p>　　另一方面，這些機器人還是可更新的，每次出臺新的政策，有了新的市場變化或者出現(xiàn)新的疾病的時候，很多人類都需要非常長的時間進行反應和判斷，但是對于機器人來說，就算全世界有100億人人工智能的機器人，他們也可以在一瞬間實現(xiàn)信息的全面更新，并且所有人的機器人都可以相互分享自己的感受。</p><p>　　連接性和可更新性所帶來的優(yōu)勢巨大，僅以銀行為例就算某個人的工作效率高于機器，但是使用機器人將會將所有人的工作效率都提升到一個極高的水平之上。那我們到底怎么辦?難不成真的要變成無用的人類，混吃等死的廢物了嗎?</p><p>　　赫拉利說：人類與其想贏過機器人，不如把重點放在機器人的維護和運用上。雖然，機器人取代了大量的工作，但同時在維護、遠程控制、數(shù)據(jù)分析和網(wǎng)絡安全方面也創(chuàng)造了許多新的工作機會。這樣2050年的就業(yè)市場的特點很有可能是人類與人工智能的合作，而非競爭，從銀行到警察的各個領(lǐng)域內(nèi)，“人類+人工智能”的組合其表現(xiàn)都能超越單純的人類或者單純的機器人。</p><p><br /></p><center><img alt="機器人搶銀行飯碗時代已來，全面失業(yè)潮來臨我們能做什么？" src="http://editerupload.eepw.com.cn/201807/4fd13d1cd3ef27ab74a359f0b7ee77b6.jpg" width="548" height="366" /></center><p><br /></p><p>　　然而，這些新工作可能需要極高水平的專業(yè)知識，因此將無法解決無技能失業(yè)者的就業(yè)問題，在過去的自動化浪潮之中，勞動者可以從一個低技能工作輕松地轉(zhuǎn)移到另一個低技能工作上去，比如說失去土地的農(nóng)民可以去拖拉機廠當工人，工廠的工人失業(yè)了之后可以去超市當收銀員，這是因為每個行業(yè)只需要稍加培訓就好了。但是，低技能的人在未來可能完全無法變身成為“人類+人工智能”的高水平人群，舉例來說，即使是無人機駕駛員的崗位再無人可用，美國空軍也不會找個超市收銀員來填補空缺。“無用階層”的人數(shù)將會無法避免的日益龐大，一方面很多人找不到工作，另一方面也會有很多雇主找不到有技能的雇員。這就像19世紀汽車取代了馬車時的情景，雖然當年馬車夫還可以去轉(zhuǎn)行當司機，但是現(xiàn)在我們已經(jīng)不是馬車夫了而是那些被永遠淘汰的馬。</p><p>　　那么，我們能怎么辦呢?對于個人來說，可能只剩下了終身學習這一唯一的路徑，只有終身學習讓自己始終跟上時代的發(fā)展脈搏和方向可能才有機會讓自己不會淪落為真正的“無用階層”吧，其實未來已來，我們別無選擇，只有奮勇向前了。</p></span>  <div class="zlho1di" id="coverDiv" class="article_reg" style="width:100%;overflow:hidden;display:none;z-index:10;position:absolute;left:0;background:#fff;"> <center> <img src="https://webstorage.eepw.com.cn/images/display/reg.jpg" border="0" usemap="#Map" /> <map name="Map" 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