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</div> <div style="margin-top:28px;"></div> <div id="s33q6y7" class="content" id="contentDiv" style="position:relative;"> <div id="1vfcxq5" class="editorNote"> <strong>編者按</strong>：凡是過去，皆為序章。越過山丘的新能源，面對的將是壯闊的“藍?！?，雖然不會歲月靜好，也許還會有波浪，但從申報項目情況來看，無論是市場層，還是監(jiān)管方，至少是信心滿滿且充滿理性，這對于剛邁出第一步的平價上網(wǎng)，算是開了一個好頭。</div> <br/> <div id="jnpcgn3" class="ad_300x180_Afinal13_back">  <iframe id='a225770a' name='a225770a' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='300' height='200'><a target='_blank'><img src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE&n=a576c0a2' border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <span id="contentlabels" style="font-size:14px;"><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　靴子終于落地。</p>本文引用地址：<a href="http://cafeforensic.com/article/201908/403333.htm">http://cafeforensic.com/article/201908/403333.htm</a><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　<a class="contentlabel" href="http://cafeforensic.com/news/listbylabel/label/新能源"><em>新能源</em></a>發(fā)展，成于補貼，困于補貼，在面臨千億補貼缺口的當下，平價上網(wǎng)成了順理成章之舉。</p><div id="h1e2olr" class="reading" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 8px 0px 0px; font-size: 12px; float: left; clear: left; width: 310px; color: rgb(72, 72, 72); font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"></div><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　一個大致的判斷是，到2020年，我國大部分地區(qū)可以實現(xiàn)風電和<a class="contentlabel" href="http://cafeforensic.com/news/listbylabel/label/光伏發(fā)電"><em>光伏發(fā)電</em></a>側的平價上網(wǎng)。當然，這不只是發(fā)電一個環(huán)節(jié)的事，從系統(tǒng)角度而言，平價上網(wǎng)涉及產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的方方面面。<a class="contentlabel" href="http://cafeforensic.com/news/listbylabel/label/新能源"><em>新能源</em></a>產(chǎn)業(yè)將面臨哪些挑戰(zhàn)，需要如何克服困難，才能讓當下火熱的“紅?！背蔀槿碌摹八{海”？</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　<strong>需跨越“軟成本大山”</strong></p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　如今，<a class="contentlabel" href="http://cafeforensic.com/news/listbylabel/label/新能源"><em>新能源</em></a>已經(jīng)進入可以與傳統(tǒng)能源競爭的時代。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　在歐洲科學與藝術院院士、瑞典皇家理工學院教授嚴晉躍看來，盡管新能源成本的下降經(jīng)歷了類似于芯片領域摩爾定律的發(fā)展歷程，但新能源平價上網(wǎng)不是僅靠技術進步就能實現(xiàn)。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　研究顯示，雖然可再生能源的硬成本正在快速下降，但軟成本的下降并不明顯，導致目前軟成本占整個項目成本的比例反而增加。美國每季度公布的<a class="contentlabel" href="http://cafeforensic.com/news/listbylabel/label/光伏發(fā)電"><em>光伏發(fā)電</em></a>項目成本情況顯示，其硬成本每2~3年減少一半，但軟成本占比在8年之內(nèi)卻從30%~40%升至60%~70%。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　軟成本也被稱為非技術成本。在我國，盡管風機制造、光伏電池等技術成本屢創(chuàng)新低，但非技術成本下降幅度并不明顯。有機構測算，2019年在保持非技術成本不變的情況下，產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈各環(huán)節(jié)距離發(fā)電側平價的要求尚需5~10個百分點的降幅。據(jù)瑞銀證券統(tǒng)計，目前一些項目的非技術成本高達0.5~1元/瓦，占總裝機成本的10%~20%。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　在業(yè)內(nèi)人士看來，非技術成本包括前期費用和建設費用、融資成本、運營費用等等，已經(jīng)成為了橫亙在發(fā)電側平價上網(wǎng)面前的“大山”。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　首先，非技術成本難以下降。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　主要包括前期費用和建設過程的費用。據(jù)業(yè)內(nèi)人士透露，前期工作費用也被稱作“路條費”，在早年間有些光伏項目的路條費高達1元/瓦。據(jù)介紹，光伏電站前期工作，需要完成大量的文件，一般有：可研報告、備案文件、列入國家指標證明文件、土地租賃協(xié)議、項目用地紅線、土地預審文件、建設用地預審文件、林地意見、環(huán)評、水保、選址意見書、安評、節(jié)能、壓覆礦產(chǎn)、地宅、設施農(nóng)業(yè)備案、安穩(wěn)報告、電力接入方案及批復、測繪報告、地勘報告、總評規(guī)劃、送出工程批復等。這其中，每個文件的背后，都需要付出大量的精力甚至費用。此外，在項目建設過程中，也會因為征地等原因增加成本，影響項目工期和投產(chǎn)時間。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　其次，項目融資成本通常較高。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　新能源電站為重資產(chǎn)行業(yè)，一般規(guī)律是，投資方只需要出20%~30%的資本金，其余資金通過融資方式獲得。因此，能否獲得較低利率的融資，就成為衡量項目能否成為優(yōu)良金融資產(chǎn)的標準。2017年，我國光伏企業(yè)晶科能源以2.42美分/千瓦時(約合人民幣0.15元/千瓦時)的電價中標阿布扎比Sweihan1.17吉瓦光伏電站而備受關注，主要原因就是獲得了較低的融資成本。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　最后，業(yè)主單位運營成本偏多。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　其一是租地成本。以每畝地可以安裝40千瓦左右的光伏電站，上網(wǎng)電價為0.4元/千瓦時(不含稅電價為0.3448)、土地租金約為800元/畝計算，每年的發(fā)電收入約為13800元/畝，租金部分就占發(fā)電收入的5.8%。其二，一些稅費也時常影響項目的收益。據(jù)報道，2017年某省稅務部門要求光伏電站按照5~8元/平方米的標準繳納城鎮(zhèn)土地使用稅。如按照10兆瓦光伏電站占用300畝土地進行核算，每年最少要繳納100萬元土地使用稅，占發(fā)電收入的比例超過24%。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　幸運的是，今年以來發(fā)布的系列文件明確要求，對于平價上網(wǎng)項目，要避免不合理的收費，要求各地在土地利用及土地相關收費方面予以支持。但也有專家指出，這一政策缺乏后續(xù)獎懲措施，實施效果上可能打折，建議參考光伏領跑基地項目經(jīng)驗加強約束，做到獎罰嚴明。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　<strong>要依靠“三大支柱”</strong></p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　新能源產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的現(xiàn)狀，在新能源發(fā)電功率預測企業(yè)身上可見一斑。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　“我們是國內(nèi)做功率預測第一批企業(yè)，也獲得了市場的認可，最好的時候年營收也就在一億元左右”，東潤環(huán)能董事長鄧建清對記者表示，“如今，我個人更關注氫能產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展前景”。國內(nèi)另外一家從事功率預測的企業(yè)——大賢科技創(chuàng)始人兼總經(jīng)理錢勝利也對記者表示，雖然平價上網(wǎng)可能帶來新能源的規(guī)模擴大，但目前國內(nèi)電力市場尚無法體現(xiàn)功率預測技術的價值，目前公司的首要任務是先活下去，因此只能先依靠軟件開發(fā)項目生存。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　平價上網(wǎng)無疑讓習慣了補貼的產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈進入到優(yōu)勝劣汰階段。據(jù)彭博新能源財經(jīng)分析稱，無補貼政策將壓縮項目收益，這將令平價政策的落實面臨動力不足的挑戰(zhàn)。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　由此，從整個產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈來看，需要在以下三方面發(fā)力：從企業(yè)層面，需要進一步提質(zhì)增效，防范市場風險，提升核心競爭力；在規(guī)劃、標準和政策方面，應根據(jù)實際發(fā)展情況進行動態(tài)調(diào)整和優(yōu)化；在產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展角度，要鼓勵跨界融合，打造生態(tài)圈，讓更多具有創(chuàng)新性的商業(yè)模式涌現(xiàn)出來，才能真正推動能源系統(tǒng)實現(xiàn)轉(zhuǎn)型和可持續(xù)發(fā)展。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　企業(yè)層面的實力比拼是根本。這一輪的平價上網(wǎng)，不是簡單的價格戰(zhàn)，而是真正意義上的綜合實力比拼。因此，新能源企業(yè)要將自己的事情做好，通過科技創(chuàng)新把降低成本、提升效率做到極致，才能得到市場的認可。一個辦法就是通過規(guī)模效應，無論是啟用大風機，還是采用高效光伏組件，無疑都會攤薄成本，增加獲利空間。規(guī)劃中的內(nèi)蒙古烏蘭察布風電基地最大優(yōu)勢在于規(guī)模：裝機量600萬千瓦，落地電價為0.35元/千瓦時。另一個方法就是提升管理運維效率，通過信息化技術提高運營效率，通過大數(shù)據(jù)等技術拓展市場空間。據(jù)測算，在滿足“三北”地區(qū)棄光率低于5%、光伏全部上網(wǎng)電量得到保價保量收購和光伏造價下降到3.6元/千瓦以內(nèi)這三個條件的情況下，2020年，全國大部分地區(qū)光伏電站可實現(xiàn)無補貼平價上網(wǎng)。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　政策層面的保駕護航是保障。以光伏為例，當前地面電站要實現(xiàn)平價上網(wǎng)，必須是電價高、資源條件都好的地區(qū)。國家可再生能源信息管理中心綜合管理處副處長徐國新認為，“做好試點項目，探索平價上網(wǎng)所需的保障條件，積累制度基礎和操作經(jīng)驗，將為后續(xù)產(chǎn)業(yè)健康發(fā)展帶來積極影響。”為此建議有關部門加強溝通協(xié)調(diào)，對光伏行業(yè)征地范圍、稅收標準、征收年限等盡快予以明確，并強調(diào)光伏項目建成時的土地稅費政策，在電站全生命周期中維持不變，不得在項目建成后增收新的土地稅費項目和增加金額，切實降低非技術成本。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　產(chǎn)業(yè)層面的科技創(chuàng)新是關鍵。新能源從輔助能源到替代能源再到主導能源的過程，需要增強創(chuàng)新意識。平價上網(wǎng)已經(jīng)開啟了承上啟下的大門，產(chǎn)業(yè)界首先要從思維方式上適應這場變革，研究如何使風電、太陽能等成為穩(wěn)定可控的能源類型，不斷提升其并網(wǎng)友好性，與其他能源互補配合，并聯(lián)手能源、金融各方，不斷完善產(chǎn)業(yè)生態(tài)，創(chuàng)新商業(yè)模式，通過綠證交易、隔墻售電、光儲結合等方式，營造消納消費綠電的商業(yè)環(huán)境和社會氛圍。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　<strong>將迎來“三重機遇”</strong></p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　越過山丘，會發(fā)現(xiàn)什么？</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　2019年被視為平價上網(wǎng)的試水年。針對日前發(fā)布的第一批名單，中金公司分析認為，盡管獲批規(guī)模少于申報量，但光伏項目占比七成、分布式隔墻售電試點啟動也超出預期。更為重要的是，新政提供了穩(wěn)定發(fā)展的預期，也有望解決土地、融資和消納等問題，由此帶來的規(guī)模增<a target="_blank" class="keytip" style="outline-style: none; color: rgb(4, 51, 150);">長和</a>商業(yè)機會將不可限量。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　2017年5月23日，國家能源局下發(fā)開展風電平價上網(wǎng)示范工作通知，至今年5月22日首批項目公示之日，這一歷程整整走過了3年的時間。6月30日前，新建平價上網(wǎng)項目有望開工。未來的“藍?！睍心男C會？</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　徐國新認為，平價上網(wǎng)政策將給行業(yè)帶來三大變化：</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　其一，加速替代化石能源進程。在平價上網(wǎng)政策推動下，新能源和化石能源的市場競爭將轉(zhuǎn)化為燃料價格和新能源度電成本的競爭。從長期趨勢看，新能源成本還將繼續(xù)下探，化石能源將因燃料價格波動以及環(huán)保成本上升失去成本優(yōu)勢，促使新能源在市場競價中逐步占據(jù)主導地位，加速替代化石能源的進程。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　其二，推動能源共享經(jīng)濟時代到來。分布式新能源將因成本低，消納條件好，節(jié)約輸配電投資等原因，實現(xiàn)大范圍覆蓋。平價上網(wǎng)可以推動能源互聯(lián)網(wǎng)高速到來，實現(xiàn)可再生能源智能化，一體化生產(chǎn)、傳輸、存儲、消費以及市場交易。在以泛在電力物聯(lián)網(wǎng)為平臺的基礎設施之上，或許會孕育出“殺手級”的新能源商業(yè)模式。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　其三，推動新能源成為綠色金融產(chǎn)品。近零邊際成本特性降低了新能源資產(chǎn)風險，使其易于取得更高信用評級，融資方式將繼續(xù)多樣化，從而增強企業(yè)資產(chǎn)的流動性。新政鼓勵平價項目出售綠證，較低的價格可對自愿綠證市場起到激活作用。此外可再生能源配額機制正式實施后，達不到配額要求的義務主體也可以通過購買綠證的渠道來完成配額，這會進一步擴大綠證市場。目前全國采購綠證數(shù)量不到3萬個，并且當前綠證價格比較高，風電一般在0.2元/千瓦時左右，<a class="contentlabel" href="http://cafeforensic.com/news/listbylabel/label/光伏發(fā)電"><em>光伏發(fā)電</em></a>在0.5~0.6元/千瓦時，對比歐洲自愿綠證系統(tǒng)的價格約為0.2~0.3歐分/千瓦時，約合人民幣2分錢左右，未來綠證市場發(fā)展存在較大空間。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　此外，本輪方案提出執(zhí)行固定電價收購政策和強化全額保障性收購政策，同時明確由電網(wǎng)企業(yè)建設接網(wǎng)工程。此舉無疑極大增強了投資方的信心，但對于簽訂不少于20年的固定電價購售電合同，業(yè)界專家指出，真正保障平價上網(wǎng)不是僅僅簽訂一個合同那么簡單，需要通過技術突破和全產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈合力創(chuàng)新商業(yè)模式方能保障。比如，當遇到新能源出力低到極端情況時，出于安全考慮，可以通過新能源+儲能或其他應急設施保證平滑出力，為此應該考慮相關投資如何通過市場機制找到出口，這一舉措無論對于電網(wǎng)、電站還是用戶都具有相當?shù)姆e極作用，未來也將產(chǎn)生很多機會。</p><p style="margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; padding: 0px 20px 0px 17px; line-height: 28px; font-family: 宋體, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">　　凡是過去，皆為序章。越過山丘的新能源，面對的將是壯闊的“藍?！?，雖然不會歲月靜好，也許還會有波浪，但從申報項目情況來看，無論是市場層，還是監(jiān)管方，至少是信心滿滿且充滿理性，這對于剛邁出第一步的平價上網(wǎng)，算是開了一個好頭。</p><p><br/></p></span>  <div class="l7rpgnu" id="coverDiv" class="article_reg" 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