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</div> <div style="margin-top:28px;"></div> <div id="4o4460g" class="content" id="contentDiv" style="position:relative;"> <div id="keiasmm" class="ad_300x180_Afinal13_back">  <iframe id='a225770a' name='a225770a' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='300' height='200'><a target='_blank'><img src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=87&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE&n=a576c0a2' border='0' alt='' /></a></iframe> </div> <span id="contentlabels" style="font-size:14px;"><p style="text-indent:2em;">導(dǎo)讀：芯片狂潮之后，這會(huì)是未來(lái)最大的應(yīng)用前景么？</p>本文引用地址：<a href="http://cafeforensic.com/article/202008/416949.htm">http://cafeforensic.com/article/202008/416949.htm</a><p style="text-indent:2em;">01</p><p style="text-indent:2em;">芯片未來(lái)最大的應(yīng)用市場(chǎng)？</p><p style="text-indent:2em;">盡管處在上游的芯片股由于各種原因經(jīng)歷了大漲，但芯片本身要發(fā)揮出提升經(jīng)效率的作用，還需要終端的應(yīng)用。</p><p style="text-indent:2em;">眼前最大的終端應(yīng)用市場(chǎng)當(dāng)屬智能手機(jī)，2019年全球智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)規(guī)模高達(dá)7150億美元，但這是一個(gè)接近飽和的應(yīng)用領(lǐng)域，即便是在5G時(shí)代，對(duì)于手機(jī)而言更多地只是速度更快；對(duì)智能手機(jī)本身而言，目前很難看出未來(lái)還會(huì)出現(xiàn)何種革命性演進(jìn)。</p><p style="text-indent:2em;">人工智能、大數(shù)據(jù)中心這些對(duì)芯片需求巨大領(lǐng)域?qū)儆谥杏萎a(chǎn)業(yè)，最終也還是需要落地到終端應(yīng)用市場(chǎng)。</p><p style="text-indent:2em;"><strong>這個(gè)終端應(yīng)用市場(chǎng)會(huì)在哪里爆發(fā)？</strong></p><p style="text-indent:2em;"><strong>答案可能是<a class="contentlabel" href="http://cafeforensic.com/news/listbylabel/label/卡車貨運(yùn)"><em>卡車貨運(yùn)</em></a>。</strong></p><p style="text-indent:2em;"><a class="contentlabel" href="http://cafeforensic.com/news/listbylabel/label/卡車貨運(yùn)"><em>卡車貨運(yùn)</em></a>市場(chǎng)僅在美國(guó)就高達(dá)8000億美元，全球市場(chǎng)規(guī)模約為3萬(wàn)億美元。</p><p style="text-indent:2em;">這個(gè)行業(yè)不僅僅具有大量可以提升的經(jīng)濟(jì)效率空間，更重要的是，其與<a class="contentlabel" href="http://cafeforensic.com/news/listbylabel/label/自動(dòng)駕駛"><em>自動(dòng)駕駛</em></a>乘用車大規(guī)模商用并盈利未來(lái)至少還有20年不同，自動(dòng)化貨運(yùn)卡車由于監(jiān)管和應(yīng)用限制以及技術(shù)要求不同，預(yù)計(jì)在10年內(nèi)就會(huì)出現(xiàn)大規(guī)模的應(yīng)用。</p><p style="text-indent:2em;">我們一項(xiàng)一項(xiàng)來(lái)看，首先是巨大的效率提升空間。</p><p style="text-indent:2em;">盡管規(guī)模巨大，但這是一個(gè)效率相當(dāng)?shù)偷氖袌?chǎng)。<strong><a class="contentlabel" href="http://cafeforensic.com/news/listbylabel/label/卡車貨運(yùn)"><em>卡車貨運(yùn)</em></a>市場(chǎng)高度分散</strong>，美國(guó)規(guī)模前25名的卡車公司加起來(lái)市場(chǎng)份額還不到10%，剩下的90%的市場(chǎng)份額由90萬(wàn)家卡車公司來(lái)分，其中96%的公司擁有的卡車數(shù)量少于20輛，平均有三分之一的時(shí)間這些貨車都在路上空駛。</p><p style="text-indent:2em;">不僅僅是美國(guó)，全球第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體中國(guó)的貨車運(yùn)輸體系也存在這樣的“問(wèn)題”：中國(guó)有800萬(wàn)家貨車公司，大多數(shù)是只有一輛車的“公司”。</p><p style="text-indent:2em;">另外，<strong>貨車運(yùn)輸體系中，人力成本平均占據(jù)了高達(dá)40%的份額</strong>，這一比例也存在巨大的壓縮空間。</p><p style="text-indent:2em;">因此，智能化統(tǒng)一調(diào)配貨車運(yùn)輸資源和自動(dòng)化運(yùn)輸，或?qū)⒃谥衅跒?G和大量芯片的應(yīng)用提供廣闊的前景。</p><p style="text-indent:2em;">第二，<a class="contentlabel" href="http://cafeforensic.com/news/listbylabel/label/自動(dòng)駕駛"><em>自動(dòng)駕駛</em></a>貨車的大規(guī)模應(yīng)用，將先于無(wú)人駕駛乘用車。</p><p style="text-indent:2em;"><a class="contentlabel" href="http://cafeforensic.com/news/listbylabel/label/自動(dòng)駕駛"><em>自動(dòng)駕駛</em></a>貨車被分為三大階段。</p><p style="text-indent:2em;">第一大階段僅需5年時(shí)間：首先是自動(dòng)卡車跟司機(jī)“學(xué)習(xí)”兩年，積累數(shù)據(jù)和“經(jīng)驗(yàn)”，隨后3年僅需要一位卡車司機(jī)來(lái)帶領(lǐng)另一輛無(wú)人駕駛卡車，“跟隨”卡車依靠人類控制的卡車和衛(wèi)星定位及車身傳感器實(shí)現(xiàn)自動(dòng)駕駛。此時(shí)對(duì)卡車司機(jī)的需求就會(huì)出現(xiàn)明顯減少。</p><p style="text-indent:2em;">第二大階段約需2年時(shí)間，此時(shí)一位司機(jī)不僅可以帶領(lǐng)一輛卡車，而是帶領(lǐng)一隊(duì)。</p><p style="text-indent:2em;">第三大階段約在2027年后即可實(shí)現(xiàn)：車隊(duì)已經(jīng)完全不需要任何人類“領(lǐng)航”。</p><p style="text-indent:2em;">圖：自動(dòng)駕駛貨車的三大發(fā)展階段</p><p style="text-align:center"><img src="https://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_bt/0/12253338261/1000"/></p><p style="text-indent:2em;">整條賽道目前正在默默地積蓄著能量。</p><p style="text-indent:2em;">02</p><p style="text-indent:2em;">現(xiàn)在該緊盯哪里？</p><p style="text-indent:2em;">盡管整個(gè)行業(yè)前進(jìn)的方向是確定的，但誰(shuí)將在什么時(shí)候獲益，目前還具有高度不確定性，這是新興產(chǎn)業(yè)的“通病”。</p><p style="text-indent:2em;">即便是現(xiàn)在看似已經(jīng)具有較高確定性的<a class="contentlabel" href="http://cafeforensic.com/news/listbylabel/label/特斯拉"><em>特斯拉</em></a>，在一年多前還被市場(chǎng)質(zhì)疑過(guò)能不能活下去。</p><p style="text-indent:2em;">即便如此，在相對(duì)早期的階段，還是值得持續(xù)關(guān)注——當(dāng)年“默默無(wú)聞”的<a class="contentlabel" href="http://cafeforensic.com/news/listbylabel/label/特斯拉"><em>特斯拉</em></a>在2010年上市的時(shí)候，大多數(shù)人的注意力都還在智能手機(jī)，但三年之后<a class="contentlabel" href="http://cafeforensic.com/news/listbylabel/label/特斯拉"><em>特斯拉</em></a>股價(jià)就“默默地”翻了近10倍。</p><p style="text-indent:2em;">如今貨車行業(yè)正在呈現(xiàn)多條路徑向前推進(jìn)的特征。</p><p style="text-indent:2em;">最近最火熱的貨車上市公司莫過(guò)于Nicola，這家公司致力于生產(chǎn)零排放的貨車，2020年6月通過(guò)“借殼上市”的方式開(kāi)始在納斯達(dá)克交易，股價(jià)經(jīng)歷了巨幅波動(dòng)，主要是因?yàn)楣粳F(xiàn)在一輛車還沒(méi)生產(chǎn)出來(lái)，純概念炒作的緣故。</p><p style="text-indent:2em;">但即便如此，如今“冷靜”下來(lái)的股價(jià)，仍給到Nicola超過(guò)100億美元的估值，超過(guò)了菲亞特-克萊斯勒的市值。</p><p style="text-indent:2em;">圖：Nicola的“殼”在正式被附身之前就開(kāi)始暴漲</p><p style="text-align:center"><img src="https://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_bt/0/12253338262/1000"/></p><p style="text-indent:2em;">而傳統(tǒng)的貨車制造商上市公司的行情也非常不錯(cuò)。</p><p style="text-indent:2em;">圖：頭部貨車和引擎“傳統(tǒng)”制造商的股價(jià)表現(xiàn)超越美股大盤</p><p style="text-align:center"><img src="https://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_bt/0/12253338263/1000"/></p><p style="text-indent:2em;">當(dāng)然，<strong>未來(lái)的黑馬仍可能來(lái)自于未上市公司。</strong></p><p style="text-indent:2em;">亞馬遜在2019年就向2009年成立的電動(dòng)自動(dòng)駕駛技術(shù)公司Rivian注入了7億美元股權(quán)融資，同時(shí)還向其下了5億美元的訂單，Rivian未來(lái)將向亞馬遜交付10萬(wàn)輛電動(dòng)貨車。</p><p style="text-indent:2em;">同時(shí)，亞馬遜在2019年還加入了自動(dòng)駕駛技術(shù)公司Aurora的5.3億美元的B輪融資，Aurora匯集了來(lái)自谷歌、特斯拉和優(yōu)步自動(dòng)駕駛部門的頂級(jí)大咖。Rivian提供的是貨車“硬件”，Aurora提供的是自動(dòng)駕駛的“軟件”。</p><p style="text-indent:2em;">當(dāng)然，如今在競(jìng)逐下一代的“偉大變革”中，已經(jīng)不再是美國(guó)公司唱獨(dú)角戲的時(shí)代。</p><p style="text-indent:2em;">德國(guó)奔馳的“未來(lái)貨車2025”正在穩(wěn)步推進(jìn)中（計(jì)劃2025年上市），瑞典沃爾沃將從今年開(kāi)始報(bào)告其自動(dòng)駕駛貨車業(yè)務(wù)的財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)，當(dāng)然還有在2015年成立于中國(guó)的圖森未來(lái)（TuSimple）。圖森提供高速場(chǎng)景及港內(nèi)集裝箱卡車的無(wú)人駕駛運(yùn)輸解決方案。</p><p style="text-indent:2em;">2018年8月，“名不見(jiàn)經(jīng)傳”的圖森未來(lái)獲得中國(guó)第一張卡車自動(dòng)駕駛公開(kāi)道路牌照。目前其研發(fā)L4級(jí)自動(dòng)駕駛卡車，爭(zhēng)取在2024年之前量產(chǎn)。圖森未來(lái)在中國(guó)與陜汽集團(tuán)合作，以X6000型重型卡車為基礎(chǔ)設(shè)計(jì)、改建無(wú)人駕駛汽車。</p><p style="text-indent:2em;">在科技競(jìng)爭(zhēng)成為大國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)最根本的當(dāng)下環(huán)境中，能夠大幅提升經(jīng)濟(jì)效率的新科技和應(yīng)用，將受到流動(dòng)性過(guò)剩環(huán)境下資本的進(jìn)一步追捧。</p><p style="text-indent:2em;">誰(shuí)將最終打造貨車領(lǐng)域的特斯拉？</p><p><br/></p></span>  <div class="am4oici" id="coverDiv" class="article_reg" style="width:100%;overflow:hidden;display:none;z-index:10;position:absolute;left:0;background:#fff;"> <center> <img src="https://webstorage.eepw.com.cn/images/display/reg.jpg" border="0" usemap="#Map" /> <map name="Map" id="Map"> <area shape="rect" coords="133,235,319,253" target="_blank" /> <area shape="rect" coords="132,315,319,335" /> </map> </center> </div>  <span id="ami4eck" class="hAd8"> <br></span>   </div> </article> <div id="ys4wyes" class="clear"></div> <br/> <div id="swwq4cm" class="hAd6"> <div class="seiq64y" id="relA" style="width:auto;height:auto;"> <ul> <li>  <iframe id='af71d594' name='af71d594' src='https://ad.eepw.com.cn/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=114&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' width='650' height='30'><a target='_blank'><img 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